GDP Projections

The Central Bank prepares GDP projections twice a year, in accordance with new data on macroeconomic developments in the country and abroad.

The GDP projection uses a model that provides a quantitative analysis of Montenegro’s economy, which reflects the specifics of a small, open and euroised economy. The model starts from combining and projecting the key GDP components: household consumption, government spending, investment, and exports and imports. The influence of the external sector is modelled through the equations for imports and exports and their deflators. Taking into consideration the euroisation and sensitivity to external shocks, models created for Montenegro’s economy provide short-term projections of GDP and its consumption components, and enables different model-based analyses of potential economic policies.

Available data from Monstat, the Central Bank, and relevant international institutions are used in GDP estimates.

Projections of GDP and other macroeconomic indicators are published in the CBCG Annual Report. The Central Bank shares information on GDP projections and key macroeconomic indicators with the European Commission twice a year.